India’s Nifty gave ~9.5% returns this year.
Silver did nearly 150%.
And yet, most people are still looking at silver like it’s just another commodity rally.
The real story is yet to unfold.
Starting January 1, China is tightening export controls on silver. China controls roughly 60–70% of global supply and silver isn’t sitting in vaults like gold. It’s consumed.
Cars, solar, electronics, AI infrastructure and most exciting of all, next-gen solid-state EV batteries, with prototypes promising ranges of over 1,200 km on a single charge.
Here’s the quiet imbalance building underneath:
• Global demand crossed ~36,200 metric tonnes
• Global supply is ~31,500 metric tonnes
• 75–80% of silver is a byproduct of copper/lead/zinc mining
• New mines take 12–15 years to come online
You can’t just “produce more” silver.
And connecting China into this? well China manufactures:
– ~80% of the world’s solar panels
– A massive share of EVs
– Critical AI and energy hardware
Restricting exports lets them prioritize domestic manufacturers, keep local prices lower, and gain leverage over a strategic industrial input at global level.
Now all this chaos has also let to rumors of a potential silver short squeeze due to ETF structures.
Some estimates suggest:
- The paper-to-physical silver ratio is 378:1
- Meaning: only 1 ounce (31g) of physical silver exists for every 378 ETF shares
If ETF holders demand delivery, banks could be forced to buy silver at any price, simply to meet obligations.
Silver is slowly shifting from a precious metal trade to an industrial bottleneck.
The real question is simple:
Will silver remain critical to the global economy over the next 5–10 years?
If yes, expect instability, not smooth trends.
And usually, when conviction gets too high…
Markets do the opposite.